NGX Daily Market Report: August 22, 2025

Overview: The Nigerian equities market finished higher today, with the NGX All Share Index (ASI) up 0.48% at 140,332.44, bringing YTD returns to a robust 36.66%. Market dynamics tilted bullish, with turnover jumping by 65.24% (₦15.33B) and trading volume surging to 697.75M shares (+55% vs previous day). Advancers led decliners 3.17x (57 gainers to 18 losers), capping a week of broad-based strength even as several sectors flashed overbought signals. Notably, volume was up in 77 companies while 62 saw lower volume. Large trades and heavy retail/institutional clustering in top banks further shaped flows. The naira also marginally appreciated 0.03% vs. the USD (₦1,534).

1. Significant Market Breadth Trends

• Strong Advancer/Decliner Spread: Gainers dominated with 57 advancers versus 18 decliners (Breadth: 3.17x), signaling strong, if broad, upward momentum.
• Volume Surge: Market-wide traded volume increased by 55%, reinforcing the bullish breadth and showing heightened investor participation.
• 77 stocks saw volume increases, while 62 had drops—a positive tilt but less extreme than advancers/decliners, showing selective participation in the rally.
• Turnover up 65.24%: A noteworthy pickup in value with notable institutional participation in blue chip names — generally a strong institutional vote of confidence.

2. Top Gainers & Losers

• BETA GLASS (BETAGLAS) soared 10% and holds an exceptionally high RSI of 96.78, signaling extreme overbought and potentially due for a pause or pullback.
• FTNCOCOA rebounded 10% (yet also closed as top loser on technicals previously—note erratic momentum).
• MERGROWTH ETF plummeted -9.97% but shows strong MACD; could be a snapback opportunity if volume normalizes.
• VETINDETF's high RSI (67.08) on a down day hints at near-term exhaustion.

3. Trends & Predictions

• Turnover implications: The 65.24% jump in turnover, combined with strong breadth, suggests strong conviction and likely institutional rotation into value and momentum names.
• Advancers vs Decliners: Persistent breadth above 3x signals ongoing appetite for risk and accumulation as investors chase laggards and momentum names.
• Unusual Volume:
  • FCMB, NB, WAPIC, STANBIC, and TRANSCORP POWER all traded at 2x–87x their 90-day average volumes. TRANSCORP POWER (8,700% of average!) signals high conviction or anomaly—watch for post-earnings/news volatility.
  • FCMB rose 2.33% as volume nearly tripled — a clear sign of strong entry, potentially institutional driven.
• YTD Top Gainers vs. Losers Trends:
  • AUSTINLAZ, NCR, ENAMELWA, MULTIVERSE, BETAGLAS, MECURE headline the annual leaderboard with YTD gains >30%. Some (e.g., BETAGLAS) are now extremely overbought (RSI >90), while momentum in others is flattening.
  • Year’s worst performers include MERGROWTH, ROYALEX, WAPIC, THOMASWY, MCNICHOLS, most of which are showing oversold technicals and persistently soft fundamentals; watch for possible bottom-fishing attempts.
  • Overlapping Names: MERGROWTH, THOMASWY, and MCNICHOLS appear in both daily and YTD losers, reinforcing continued downward pressure.
• Bullish Momentum—RSI & MA Signals:
  • BETAGLAS: With a sky-high RSI of 96.78 and 15DMA > 50DMA crossover, this may be due for profit taking despite strong institutional flows.
  • CAP: Crossed 15DMA bullishly with 8.7% surge; RSI remains under overbought; could see further upside.
  • FTNCOCOA, CAVERTON: Both show price/MA crossovers — short-term upside but be wary of chasing extended moves.
• Bearish Momentum—Signals:
  • MERGROWTH closed below its 15DMA, compounding its YTD and daily losses; trend remains negative until strong reversal volume appears.

4. Contrarian Signals

• Bullish MACD, Softer RSI: MERGROWTH: Despite large losses and a breakdown below 15DMA, MACD remains strongly positive (130.8), perhaps due to lag — could spark a short-term snapback.
• FTNCOCOA: Both in top gainers and with bullish 15DMA breakout, but RSI only at neutral (48.3) — may invite profit taking or volatility.
• VETINDETF: Negative returns today (down 4.8%) despite high RSI and positive MACD — a potential false breakout or exhaustion phase.

5. Sector Heatmap

6. Dividend-Beta Matrix: Defensive Picks

7. Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Accounted for 20.17% of institutional day’s trade value, signaling major funds moving in/out — traders should keep an eye on price stability, as large cross trades may continue.
• GTCO, MTNN, ACCESSCORP round up the rest of the institutional cluster — expect volatility as the large flows could drive price in either direction next week.

8. High Dividend Yields in Momentum Tables

• REGALINS and DANGSUGAR exhibit above-average dividend yields with bullish 15DMA crossovers, attractive for both income investors and momentum traders.
• CAVERTON: Sporting a high dividend and strong bullish signal, yet with moderate beta—ideal for cautious but opportunistic investors.

9. Trader Suggestions and Key Watch-List

• Monitor Overbought Names: Stocks like BETAGLAS with extreme RSI (>95) and large single-day spikes are susceptible to profit-taking; consider trailing stops or partial profit booking.
• Opportunistic Longs could focus on stocks with fresh 15DMA crossovers, sustained institutional activity, and supportive fundamentals (e.g., CAP, FIDSON, REGALINS, DANGSUGAR, CAVERTON).
• Caution for Bears: Avoid fresh shorts in heavily oversold YTD laggards until/con unless momentum reverses.
• Watch Unusual Volume Names: TRANSCORP POWER (TRASNPOWER), FCMB, and NB may see follow-through next week given massive liquidity influx—perfect for liquidity-driven traders.

10. YTD Top Gainers & Losers Table

11. Market Activity / Trades Summary: Retail vs Institutional Insights

• Institutional investors dominated actual money flows (92%+ of value, 70%+ of volume) but did so in far fewer trades (41%). Typical of block trades in large caps.
• Retail dominated by trade count, but concentrated in smaller values — signatures of speculative or activity-driven trading.

• Banking names (GTCO, ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP) continue to attract both institutional and retail trading — signals confidence in sector leadership and liquidity.
• Overlap in retail/institutional activity with high volume spikes in FCMB, GTCO, MTNN, and ZENITHBANK: May suggest coordinated or herding behavior, leading to short-term momentum swings.
• TRANSCORP POWER: Off-chart volume (8,700% of average); keep on watch for post-event volatility and potential reversion.

12. Hidden/Advanced Insights & Potential Opportunities

• Momentum Diversification: Opportunities exist in stocks crossing above 15DMA with defensive characteristics (low beta, high yield). CAP, REGALINS, DANGSUGAR, CAVERTON fit this template.
• Contrarian Play on MERGROWTH: Despite severe drops, remaining positive MACD and high historical volatility may attract rebound traders.
• Beware Exhaustion in High RSI Gainers: BETAGLAS, NCR, ENAMELWA are deeply overbought — trailing stops or profit taking is prudent; monitor order book liquidity for shakeouts.
• Event-Driven Volatility: Unusual volume spikes, especially with off-index names like TRANSCORP POWER, often precede large directional moves post-news or results — monitor closely.
• Institutional Rotation: With value and turnover shifting back into banks and select consumer names, expect continued leadership unless macro catalysts disrupt flows.
• Retail Herding in Banks suggests possible short-term reversals if news disappoints, but overall liquidity remains very supportive in large caps.